Oak View, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS66 KLOX 111736
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1036 AM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...11/921 AM.

Another warm day is on tap for today with temperatures above
seasonal normals, then a cooling trend will establish over the
weekend and into early next week as onshore flow strengthens.
Night through morning low clouds will become a staple of the
forecast over the weekend, pushing into the valleys by early next
week and into coastal slopes by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...11/920 AM.

***UPDATE***

A sunny to partly cloudy day is on tap today for the majority of
the area. Low clouds and fog struggled to form overnight, and made
it into the Southeast portion of the LA County Coast around Long
Beach with dense fog, but has since dissipated. Temperatures are
climbing with widespread low 70s already occurring. Temps today
will be similar to yesterdays, with widespread 70s to 80s, and the
warmest interior locations nudging into the 90s (like San Fernando
Valley, Antelope Valley). These temps range up to around 15
degrees above normal for this time of year. With decreasing 500 mb
heights, and increased onshore trends, expecting more areas to see
low clouds and fog tonight.

Removed low clouds and fog from the majority of the coasts south
of Point Conception, otherwise forecast is on track and no other
updates were needed.


***From Previous Discussion***

Another warm day is in the forecast today, but a cooling trend
will establish. Most of the cooling will take place for the
Central Coast, but a slight tick down in temperatures will occur
today for most areas. While a degree or two of cooling will be on
tap for the Southland, daytime temperatures will still well above
seasonal normals for today. Onshore flow will strengthen this
afternoon and bring more significant cooling on Saturday. A
cooler air mass will likely be in place through the weekend.

The forecast leans more heavily on night through morning low
clouds and fog over the weekend as NAM BUFR time height sections
indicate a more pronounced marine influence due to much stronger
onshore flow. The marine layer induced low clouds should become
more expansive and extensive through the weekend, with some
beaches possibly struggling to clear on Sunday.

Outside of the marine layer and across the interior, temperatures
will likely remain above normal into early next week. Increasing
high cloudiness will make for a partly cloudy day and evening
across the area today, but periods of high clouds will stream over
the area as broad troughing become entrenched along the West
Coast over the weekend.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...11/612 AM.

A much cooler week is looking to shape up for next week as a
split flow pattern develop. A series of cutoff troughs of low
pressure will move over the region. Due to the uncertainty of the
movement of the troughs in the split flow pattern, there is large
spread of solutions across the medium range ensemble members, but
confidence is higher for cooler temperatures than the last several
days. Climatology favors cut off troughs affecting southern
California this time of year, and these troughs will likely make
for a tough time for forecasting the smaller details of the
pattern. While the first of the series should affect the region
early in the week, the forecast leans toward cooler temperatures
and a deep marine layer, but night through morning drizzle or
mountain showers cannot be ruled out in the pattern. A few
ensemble members have precipitation developing between Monday and
Tuesday, but pattern recognition of the deterministic solutions of
the GFS would introduce the possibility of mountain showers and
maybe isolated thunderstorms over the mountains during the
afternoon and evening.

As we get into the latter part of next week, cluster analysis
favor another cutoff trough moving over the southern California
region, potentially a stronger trough that could bring a chance of
showers to the region. A cooler air mass should be expected with a
mix of clouds and sun. Both GEFS and EPS ensemble members bring
the lowest 500 mb height means for the latter portion of next
week, which should equate to much cooler temperatures and trend
toward an unstable air mass. GFS solutions currently indicate a
559-561 dam trough moving over the Southland for latter half of
next week, climatologically strong enough to produce rain for
KLAX. Forecast values go with NBM solutions for now.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1735Z.

At 1722Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 250 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 2500 ft with a temp of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KPMD, AND KWJF.
High confidence in remaining sites through 06Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs after 10Z for KBUR and KVNY. There is
a 10-20% chance for VLIFR to IFR conds from 12Z to 16Z with
higher chances at KBUR, but low confidence on minimum flight cat
if cigs arrive.

Low confidence in remaining sites after 06Z. There is a chance
for VFR conds to prevail through the period at KOXR (30%), KCMA
(40%), KSMO (30%), KLAX (30%), and KLGB (10%). Otherwise, flight
cat changes may be off +/- 4 hours and minimum flight cat may be
off by at least one cat at any time.

KLAX...Low confidence in the 18Z TAF after 06Z. Arrival of cigs
may be off +/- 4 hours. Low confidence in minimum flight cat, but
there is a 40% chance cigs could be BKN002-005 and/or vsbys
1SM-3SM once cigs arrive. There is a 30% chance VFR conds
prevail. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF through 10Z, then moderate
confidence thereafter. 20% chance for VLIFR to IFR conds from 12Z
to 16Z, and a 10% chance for VLIFR. Low confidence in minimum
flight cat.

&&

.MARINE...11/810 AM.

In the outer waters, GALE force winds in far western portion of
the northern zone (PZZ670) will become widespread in that zone
and spread into the central zone (PZZ673) by this this afternoon.
Gale force winds will continue in these areas much of the time
thru Sat evening, but chances are highest this afternoon through
late tonight. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected
late Sat evening thru Sun morning, then SCA level seas will
continue into Sun evening. In the southern zone (PZZ676), SCA
level winds will continue thru Sun morning, with seas likely
staying at SCA levels thru the evening. SCA conds are not
expected Sun thru Tue night. There is a 30% chance of Gale force
wind gusts during the afternoon/eve hours today and Sat.

In the inner waters N of Pt Conception, SCA level winds will likely
develop (>80% chance) this afternoon. SCA conds will likely
continue thru late Sat eve. Winds may drop below SCA levels late
tonight/Sat morning, but seas will likely remain near or above
SCA levels thru late Sat night. SCA conds are not expected Sun
thru Tue night. There is a 30% chance of Gale force winds during
the afternoon/eve hours today and Sat.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds are likely (70%
chance) in western portions during the afternoon/eve hours today
and Sat, with a 20% chance of SCA winds pushing eastern portions.
SCA conds are not expected Sun thru Tue night.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level
wind gusts during the afternoon/eve hours today and Sat from
Anacapa Island to Malibu. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected
thru Tue night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      Saturday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Lund
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...DB/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox